Section: Research Program

Bayesian model selection

The Bayesian approach to statistical problems is fundamentally probabilistic. A joint probability distribution is used to describe the relationships among all the unknowns and the data. Inference is then based on the posterior distribution i.e. the conditional probability distribution of the parameters given the observed data. Exploiting the internal consistency of the probability framework, the posterior distribution extracts the relevant information in the data and provides a complete and coherent summary of post-data uncertainty. Using the posterior to solve specific inference and decision problems is then straightforward, at least in principle.